More Polling Data

This article, by Karl Zinsmeister, summarizes the results of what it calls the "first scientific poll of the Iraqi public" since the war ended.

Zinsmeister seems ready to say that the emergence of some secular state is all but certain in Iraq. In the survey, for instance, 60% said they didn't want an Islamic government, with 33% saying that they did. And from the fact that 43% of respondents said they hadn't attended Friday prayer at all in the last month, Zinsmeister happily concludes: "The nation is thoroughly secularized." Which means that 57% did attend Friday prayer. Zinsmeister's reports of the demise of Islam in Iraq are exaggerated.

For Zinsmeister, this poll is a source of optimism. To me, it serves as a reminder that Iraq is not yet a secular state. 33% is a minority, but far from a negligible one. Figuring out how deal with that minority will be one of the most difficult tasks in building a stable regime in Iraq.

- posted by Erik at 11:50 AM; link

 
Disrespectful Dungaree DeFazio

Yesterday was one of those days on Capitol Hill that I like. That is, Congress didn't really do anything, they just stood around and spoke about 9/11. That means no more incursions were made into our freedom or our pocketbooks.

The day began with a prayer (still allowed in Congress, oddly) about 9/11/01. The Chaplain, Rev. Coughlin asked, "in a moment of silence, let us stand tall and be one with the thousands of faces lost in the dust; let us hold in our minds those who still moan over the hole in their lives."

Congressman Roy Blunt continued in that vein, if somewhat self-important about the role of Washington, giving a patriotic little speech. The tone of the morning was one of mourning, patriotism and respect.

Steny Hoyer, a top House Democrat, said, "On that day, there were no Republicans, there were no Democrats, there were no liberals, there were no conservatives. There were Americans. There were representatives of 280 million people elected to serve this great Nation."

But on 9/11/03 those party fissures were not absent, thanks to Oregon Democrat Peter DeFazio. DeFazio took to the floor to excoriate Congress for not appropriating more money to local firemen and other first responders:

"Our first responders, those who responded so selflessly on that tragic day, still lack basic resources and help from the Federal Government, even as Congress is considering the President's request for another $87 billion for Iraq.

On this day, Congress should resolve to remember by redoubling its efforts, avoiding dangerous distractions, and providing all the funds necessary so we can say with confidence, never again."

First, there is the attacking tone, completely incongruous with the rest of the day. Then there is the illogic of first responders being able to prevent another attack. Then there is the clincher:

DeFazio was wearing blue jeans on the floor. A violation of the rules and complete show of disrespect. West Coast lefty crunchiness can be cute, but this one was a little much, Pete.

- posted by Carney at 3:20 PM; link

 
Cards Gone Wild

Regarding the 1995 introduction of the wildcard to the MLB playoffs, I share the same visceral distaste and disappointment that I'm sure my more puristic DH-hating colleagues feel. But I admit that it's grown on me for two reasons: I) realistically, each year it's the only way the Red Sox can hope to see October and II) this season's actually yielded a couple of races worth watching, especially in the NL: the Marlins are eleven games behind the NL East-leading Braves (which would have meant game over in 1994), but are on top of the wildcard standings by a half game. But the added intrigue of the fourth playoff spot exacts a toll: the tiebreaking rules are amazingly labyrinthine, and this Baseball Prospectus article does a fine job of explaining them.

- posted by Bob at 11:51 PM; link

 
Re: UNpopular

Thirty percent of the French were rooting for a brutal dictator to defend his oppressive regime better against France's purported allies. That is simply amazing, but I guess not that surprising.

- posted by Carney at 3:49 PM; link

 
Foreign Policy and the Economy

This appeared in the Washington Post yesterday. I think its very interesting how the author contends our foreign policy is interfering with our domestic economy. I also wonder how much it is true. The argument relies on the fact that the reason for the loss in manufacturing jobs is a lack of ability to export much due to an artificially strong dollar (if the dollar is strong, other countries have to pay more to get dollars to buy our stuff, thus raising the price of our exports) caused by Japan and China's refusal to revalue their currnecies. But Japan and China only comprise 11% of our total export market (see here). And, though it has been slight, our goods export market has been growing over the last 3 quarters. I think the Bush administration has made the right decision in not forcing China to float its currency. Foreign relations are very important right now and I don't think bullying Japan and China would create jobs in the USA.

- posted by Jon at 10:06 AM; link

 
Re: UNpopular

The Pew Global Attitudes Project is gigantic and fascinating. If you have the time, you should check it out. To answer my question from below, though, Vladimir Putin is the fifth most respected world leader in America. The following is a list which I compiled from pp. 153-59 of the Topline Results. The question the respondents were asked was something like "Do you trust x's leadership in global affairs?" Americans who responded either "very much" or "somewhat" are included in the parenthetical figure.

1. Blair (83%)
2. Bush (78%)
3. Sharon (49%)
4. Annan (45%)
5. Putin (40%)
6. Schroeder (33%)
7. Chirac (26%)
8. Arafat (19%)

I should mention that Russia is the only Western country surveyed where Annan polled worse than than he did in America. Note that the average score on the above list is 46.6%.

Some other facts I learned:
1. Bin Laden is the most respected global leader in the Palestinian Authority (Arafat's a close #2).
2. 30% of the French populace was disappointed that the Iraqi Military didn't put up more of a resistance against the U.S.
3. More people in America disagree with the statement that "Children need to learn English to succeed in the world" than in any other part of the world.

As an excercise in partisan manipulation of data, I suppose I could compile a longer list of surprising statistics, but I'll leave that to the experts like Lewis Lapham.

- posted by Mark at 7:54 PM; link

 
Re: UNpopular

I'm not sure fourth place is such a great showing for Kofi. Besides Bush and Blair, who else would it even occur to an American qualifies as a world leader? Jacques Chirac? Yasser Arafat? The fact that the Secretary-General of the U.N. ranks below the Prime-Minister of Israel as as most respected world leader is hardly a vote of confidence. I'd like to see who's #5 on the list.

And Kofi's only going to get less popular with all the recent rape allegations.

- posted by Mark at 6:55 PM; link

 
re: UNpopular

The recent issue of Foreign Policy has a very good piece on the UN by Madeleine Albright. She contends all is well with the UN and the people of the US:

"Today, according to the Pew Global Attitudes Project, U.S. citizens consider U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan the fourth most respected world leader (trailing, in order, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, U.S. President George W. Bush, and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon)."

Sharon? Kofi who?

- posted by Jon at 5:47 PM; link

 
Iraqi Poll

Today's featured article at the WSJ (also available here) summarizes the data from an AEI/Zogby poll about what Iraqis think of the occupation and of their future. Iraqi opinions are relevant to Bush's (perhaps ad hoc) justification of Gulf War II as a war of liberation, and these results largely seem to back up such a justification inasmuch as we can now say that the Iraqis by and large want a secular democracy (not a return to Baathism) and have hope that things will be better in five years. The poll also shows deep skepticism in Iraq, especially among women, about the future role of the U.S. in effecting these results, but even with these qualms about U.S. power, more than 2/3 of Iraqis don't want the U.S. to leave for at least a year.

At any rate, calling for an immediate end to the occupation of Iraq should now look like what I think it always was, moralistic opportunism untethered to any true concern for the Iraqi people.

- posted by Mark at 4:34 PM; link

 
re: Confused about Consumption

Disposable DVDs seem like perfect candidates for vending machines, though I'm not sure how much of a DVD vending machine market is out there. Why wait in line at a store when you can walk on up or drive on through 24 hours a day? Plus, who needs employees?

Also, I think once a rental place buys the DVD, they get all the funds raised from renting it out. Whoever is producing the DVD is only getting paid once. By making disposables, they could get paid every time someone rents.

- posted by Brian at 2:29 PM; link

 
Growing Pains

Another shocking headline from MSN:

Even Kids Drinking Diet Soda Getting Fat

But there's good news for all you Mario Kart fans and porn addicts: Video game players and internet surfers are nowhere near as fat as television watchers.

- posted by Mark at 1:16 PM; link

 
Pros and Cons of War

Here's an interesting article from Slate about right-wing dissension over post-War Iraq. The Buchanan/Frum dispute might have made it seem like the main division within the Republican party was between Neo-conservatives and Paleo-conservatives--this little article shows how supply-siders (and thus libertarian-style conservatives) fall in with the Paleos on some recent issues.

Incidentally, it explains why someone like Carney fits so well into the ideology of the Wall Street Journal.

Bonus point: I think right-wing Straussians should be called Decepti-Cons.

- posted by Mark at 12:48 PM; link

 
Confused About Consumption

I just stumbled across this article about disposable "self-destruct" DVDs. I'm all about advances in self-destruct technologies, but I really have no idea why DVDs need to be disposable. Who does this appeal to? What's wrong with renting movies and returning them so that they can be used over and over again? It's not like they wear out after one use.

- posted by Laura at 11:52 AM; link

 
re: Crazy Kids and CDeflation

I realize I'm only one observation and far from a representative sample, but I've only bought one major label CD released in the last three years (Yankee Hotel Foxtrot) and can say with all confidence that it is not because of file sharing that my purchases have been so scant. In fact, I've bought several albums in the last three years based largely or entirely on the strength of mp3 files I downloaded for free. I ordered Castaways and Cutouts because I kept humming Here I Dreamt I was an Architect to myself after listening to it for free on the Kill Rock Stars website. I'm going to buy the newly released Her Majesty the Decemberists based on the strength of the last album and the mp3 I listened to for free on the Kill Rock Stars website.

I'm buying these CDs because I think they're worth owning, and I think that because I've been able to inform my decision. I can probably get all the songs off of a file sharing server (in fact, before Yankee Hotel Foxtrot was released you could basically hear it for free if you cared to) but I actually want to own the albums. I really like these albums. I believe that I will continue to want to hear them for a long time. That's why I'm buying them.

I don't believe this is a sufficient explanation, but I'm inclined to think that at least some of the reason CD sales have been affected by file sharing is that the vast majority of CDs suck, and that if you listen to them online, you don't have to buy them to find out how shitty they are. The Rolling Stones made a career of releasing two or three catchy songs surrounded by filler. At the time, the only way to judge the album was either by the singles or if you or someone you knew bought the album. When that someone can be anyone with a PC, this swindle is a lot harder to pull off.

It doesn't help major labels that they're largely selling trends. A Britney Spears album is basically a commercial jingle, and while I love the Chiquita Banana song, I don't own a Chiquita Banana CD... no, no, no, no. Vapid pop is fun while it lasts and it doesn't last very long. I highly recommend a perusal of the used CD section of your local record store if you doubt this. What you'll see there is that last year's 18 to 20 dollar cash cow is now five bucks. This difference is mainly due to the simple fact that someone has used and discarded that product. But since the sound quality on CDs rarely depreciates, that probably means they didn't think it was worth the (fairly small) space it took up on their shelf.

The demand for catchy but crappy music slackens severely with time. People really like it for a little while, and then they just don't care. File sharing makes cheap thrills cheaper, but the demand for a well-made album is less volatile.

Admittedly, I may be way off here, and I'm most likely overlooking some significant aspects of file sharing. It may be that smaller labels have been hit just as hard the last few years. It may be that talented creative bands are getting screwed by file sharing because good music for free is a way better value than bad music for free. Still, I doubt you're listening to Hanson as you read this, and I doubt most of the music you own or listen to is downloaded.

- posted by Brian at 3:18 AM; link

 
UNpopular

The UN has received its most disapproving rating among American respondents since Gallup began polling on the question 50 years ago. While part of me wants Gallup to have asked respondents to have named the members of the Security Council (or even to have known how many there are), that’s quite aside from the point. What’s being polled is not a measured or informed evaluation. That’s not the sort of thing one polls. What’s being polled is a general impression, and that impression’s lack of any subtlety is what makes it worth noting.

The foremost role of the UN is to prevent the "scourge of war" and "maintain international peace and security". You don’t need a strong grounding in international law to comprehend this. So even assuming that most Americans aren’t entirely sure whether the UN has a charter or what it says if it does, they likely have a solid idea of what it’s supposed to accomplish. It’s significant that this recent poll not only returned the most negative responses (60%), it returned the fewest non-responses (3%).

The most intriguing table, I think, is the ratings by subgroup. Primarily, it’s remarkable that UN approval has decreased in every subgroup. But there also appear to be new and distinct trends among sex and schooling. It’s interesting that for the two political groupings (political leaning and party affiliation) liberals and Democrats changed most, but it’s also true that they had the most room to change and that the order of approval ratings in each grouping remains. However, UN approval was nearly even and nearly uniform across sex and education level in January. In this recent poll, the qualitative correlations of approval with sex and level of education are unmistakable.

Of course, if you’re going to publish a poll in which you report -22% as representative of the change in UN approval among Americans with postgraduate schooling, it might be good to indicate just how many of the 1,009 respondents have postgraduate schooling.

- posted by Brian at 1:46 AM; link

 
Those Crazy Kids

"I am sorry for what I have done. I love music and don't want to hurt the artists I love." -- Brianna Lahara, 12, after settling with the Recording Industry Association of America for $2000.

- posted by jay at 11:57 PM; link

 
Marriage and Natural Law

Yevgeny Vilenskyat of the Yale Free Press takes issue with Eve Tushnet's argument that marriage is a political issue, not because the state has some interest in furthering self-fulfilling relationships, but because it has an interest in kids. He suggests contrary to both of these alternatives that, in America, "marriage was a political institution because modern democracies evolved from theocratic regimes." Tushnet makes her argument to undermine arguments that would seek to expand marriage rights to homosexuals. Without sharing her agenda, though, I think she (pace Vilenskyat) must be right on this point. At least from the perspective of Classic Natural Right, the state has a natural interest in marriage since the growth of the city depends on procreation. This is explicit in Plato's Laws 720e-721e (cf. 631d) and in Aristotle's Politics 1334b30 (and following). At various points in history, religious institutions might have taken on some of the responsibilities for educating and caring for children, and at various later points these religious institutions might have been secularized. Neither of these changes, however, would alter the underlying natural rationale for marriage (the evidence being that this rationale can be found outside the context of any viable theocratic tradition). But that of course doesn't mean that marriage couldn't come to serve other purposes as well.

- posted by Mark at 4:20 PM; link

 
Specter v. Me

Arlen Specter fires back at me today, with a letter in the WSJ:

Wall Street Journal
Letters to the Editor
September 9, 2003

Holmes's Nomination, and My Part in It

It is a well-known adage that all are entitled to their own opinions but not to their own facts. When Timothy P. Carney writes that I have sought to sink the nomination of Mr. J. Leon Holmes by privately approaching GOP senators, specifically mentioning Sen. Susan Collins, he is wrong on the facts ("Stop This Man," editorial page, Sept. 4).

When Mr. Holmes's nomination came before the Judiciary Committee, it was anticipated that it would be noncontroversial until some senators raised a series of objections. When I told Chairman Hatch that time was needed to check out the objections, Sen. Hatch said that there were other concerns on the Republican side so he suggested sending Mr. Holmes's nomination to the floor without a committee recommendation. I agreed.

Mr. Carney's critique of my record on Republican judicial nominees omits any reference to my votes for the confirmation of Chief Justice Rehnquist, Justice O'Connor, Justice Scalia and Justice Kennedy or my support for Justice Clarence Thomas, which may have been determinative and almost cost me my Senate seat in the 1992 election.

Sen. Arlen Specter (R., Pa.)
Washington

First, I stand behind my article.

The Senator says I am wrong, and then his second paragraph, which at first appears to be an explanation, is completely irrelevant. I never contended that Specter's deeds had anything to do with the committee's vote to send Holmes to the floor without recommendation.

That charge has been levied by others, but just as my reliable Senate sources told me about the Collins-Specter encounter, sources told me that Specter was not the reason for the unusually tepid approval of Holmes.

I suppose this comes down to Specter's word versus mine, which is rough for me, a cub reporter. But considering Specter's spin on voting records, I think what he says about his own record needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

- posted by Carney at 3:31 PM; link

 
Re: Re: Loose Cannon

I finally got around to seeing the Dempsey-recommended show Forensics Files this weekend. I watched three episodes, which is easier to do than it sounds since CourtTV is always broadcasting it (and I don't have any friends in Pittsburgh). I saw all three in one sitting. Episode one was not a particularly auspicious beginning for the evening. It was about some kid who had ingested some e-coli bacteria. The mystery (presumably to be solved by cutting-edge forensics) was how did he get infected?. The solution: the kid eventually remembered that he ate a piece of raw ground beef at camp. That sounds anti-climactic, but you should have seen the dramatic re-enactment. The kid looks to his right and left and decides to eat this large piece of raw beef. Immediately he is stricken with a look of fear. It was cold, the narrator explains, but he did not want his friends to make fun of him for spitting it out so he swallowed it (you can imagine the painful grimace on his face). I guess I understand that—kids can be merciless to pantywaists who can't handle a little boeuf tartare.

The other two episodes were good, though. In one, a wife-beating philandering cop with a handlebar moustache claims his wife, upon serving him with divorce papers, killed herself with a shotgun. Initial forensics reports make this look impossible, but a more detailed reconstruction proves that his story, despite its wild implausibility, is correct. In the other episode, a newscaster is murdered in her apartment and a DNA test proves that, even though witnesses saw her ex-boyfriend fleeing the scene of the crime, somebody else did it. In both cases, without the forensics evidence I would have convicted the wrong guy.

These episodes of Forensics Files were followed by an episode of Body of Evidence: From the case files of Dayle Hinman which provided an interesting contrast to these forensics successes. Hinman is the woman Jodie Foster's character in Silence of the Lambs was patterned after. This episode dealt with a serial killer in Gainseville, FL who was breaking into apartments and killing beautiful collegiate brunettes. During the manhunt, cops found a tent in the forest near one of the killings and saw a white guy running away from it. Next to the tent were a screwdriver, a tape-recorder, and evidence from a local (bank?) robbery, among other things. They tested the screwdriver to see if it matched the instrument used in the serial-killer's first break-in. It did not, so they bagged the evidence. Weeks later, there is another killing in Baton Rouge with the same m.o., and the cops there suspect a drifter named Collins who had also been suspected of several robberies. Some bright cop in Gainesville decided to check out the evidence from the tent. On the goddamned tape-recorder, which no one had bothered to listen to, was a virtual confession from Collins (e.g. "I'm Collins. A drifter who's done some bad things. Please don't judge me.") The reason the screwdriver didn't match the first crime scene was because it had gotten banged up when he was breaking into the later apartments.

I pray to God I'm never murdered in Gainesville.

- posted by Mark at 3:02 PM; link

 
Stopping Arlen Specter

My Wall Street Journal piece on Specter is now up on Opinion Journal, which is free, and so you all can read it.

In the OJ responses there's comment I would like to answer.

RJ Parsons writes:

"If Representative Toomey (Lehigh Valley) upsets Sen. Specter in next spring's primary, Democrat Joe Hoeffel, who represents the Philadelphia area's 13th Congressional District, will be well-positioned to become Pennsylvania's next Democratic senator.

Please note Mr. Carney: Things may not change for the best."

In my judgement, the GOP will pick up 1-3 seats in the next election. If the question is Specter or Hoeffel (which I don't believe) I would rather have 51 GOP Senators and a conservative Republican Judiciary Chairman (Jon Kyl of Arizona is next in line) than 52 GOP Senators and Chairman Specter.

- posted by Carney at 7:55 PM; link

 
Elevated to Elevated

Apparently, some folks aren't buying the Flypaper Theory. A Gallup poll released today suggests the proportion of Americans concerned about domestic terrorism has recently and markedly increased. Respondents were noticeably more concerned about biological weapons than nuclear weapons, but suicide bombings are clearly considered the most likely means. Those polled are also confident that there are Al Qaeda operatives in the US. Strangely, the release does not mention that respondents are just as worried about terrorism as they were this time last year. September 11 is three days from now, but while anniversary terrorism was the big buzz last year, this year the correlation Gallup proposes is "recent suicide and car bombings in Iraq".

- posted by Brian at 1:11 PM; link

 
More on Unemployment

Some good thoughts from Econopundit. It would be interesting if there has been an increase in the natural rate of unemployment due to changes in the American economy. Yet, there is plenty to indicate that the natural rate is lower (consider how low inflation has been) than the cited paper suggests.

- posted by Jon at 11:10 AM; link